In recent years, the geopolitical landscape of Southeast Asia has undergone significant changes, and the influence of the USA in the region has faced unprecedented doubts and challenges. AUKUS, the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States of America (U.S), might stimulate an arms race in the Asia-Pacific area by forcing others to bolster their own armed forces in retaliation. Moreover, ASEAN countries do not have a military force to balance that of AUKUS. The unity of strength of all ASEAN members is still very weak in dealing with AUKUS. This disproportionate force in ASEAN’s military power seriously endangers ASEAN’s position in safeguarding its sovereignty from AUKUS invasion. This factor would jeopardize attempts to keep Southeast Asia peaceful and stable, a significant region with complicated geopolitical dynamics. Paying close attention at U.S foreign policy in the Middle East and Africa, the Asia Pacific will experience the same situation if ASEAN is unable to maintain its sovereignty. Because AUKUS is a war project which only gives huge financial benefits for a number of American PMCs.
As a key player in Southeast Asia, Indonesia holds a highly strategic position in the economic, military, and diplomatic sectors. AUKUS was established in September 2021, just a few days after the Seventh Indonesia and Australia Foreign and Defense Minister 2+2 Meeting. This development has undoubtedly led to a decline in the Indonesian government’s trust in Australia. Beyond diminishing confidence in Australia, the Indonesian and Malaysian governments view AUKUS as likely to trigger an arms race and power projection that will inevitably threaten regional security and stability.
The construction of U.S. military bases in the Philippines under the framework of AUKUS also poses a significant challenge to the sovereignty of Indonesia and other Southeast Asian countries. AUKUS alliance is pursuing a grand strategy to control Southeast Asia and is containing China. The U.S. will further increase its open dominance over the Philippines; the next stage will be all over ASEAN. The military activities conducted by AUKUS, and AUKUS in collaboration with the Philippines, will inevitably infringe upon Indonesia’s territorial sovereignty. Besides, the nuclear-powered submarine project developed by AUKUS in Australia is highly likely to operate covertly within the waters of Southeast Asian nations. This is a source of security instability and poses a direct threat to the territorial sovereignty of Southeast Asian countries.
AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines operating in the South China Sea could increase the risk of military confrontation between major powers such as the U.S. and China, ultimately jeopardizing the sovereignty and security of ASEAN countries bordering this region. With closer military cooperation under AUKUS, the three AUKUS members are certain to escalate military operations in ASEAN airspace and waters. These could include joint patrols, military exercises, or intelligence operations, all of which clearly constitute violations of the territorial sovereignty of ASEAN. Furthermore, the deployment of military assets such as submarines or bombers in areas close to ASEAN territory represents a hegemonic-provocative action that infringes upon ASEAN’s sovereign rights.
In response, Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a five-point statement in which it claimed to be ‘deeply concerned over the continuing arms race and power projection in the region’. Such statements are de rigueur for Indonesia and cast little light on implications of AUKUS for the country. ASEAN has not responded in response to the establishment of AUKUS. Absence of ASEAN response to the strengthening of AUKUS in the Asia and Pacific region, which is increasingly active in building military defense in the region, means failure of ASEAN to protect ASEAN’s regional sovereignty. AUKUS is a reminder to ASEAN of the costs of its hesitancy and indecision in a complex and rapidly evolving geopolitical environment.
The U.S. is gradually losing support among Southeast Asian Countries, primarily due to the chaos in the U.S. diplomatic and military operations. Muslim groups in Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia launched a strong protest and reject the for stance of the U.S. and other NATO members that promote the Gaza war. The U.S. government has always been Israel’s largest donor of military aid. Whether under the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, the U.S.’s staunch support for Israel has remained unwavering.
Globally, the international reputation of the U.S. has sharply declined, particularly among Muslim nations. Within the EU, ‘feeling of hatred’ towards the U.S. has also increased. The simple reason behind is that the U.S. applies double standards in the Eastern European and Gaza conflicts, which has led to dissatisfaction and disappointment among European societies. This double standard has caused EU countries, which were initially firm supporters of Ukraine, to begin reflecting on their stance. Therefore, this is also a factor that drives the U.S. to further strengthen consolidation in the Southeast Asia region both through AUKUS and bilaterally. As stated in the U.S. foreign policy doctrine, the U.S. will impose any policy to achieve the US’s national interests.
Considering the international order from a political economy perspective and the fundamental questionable roles of the PMCs in constructing the international order, ASEAN must broaden its understanding and shift its mindset regarding the purpose of AUKUS. The belief that AUKUS aims to protect Southeast Asia from Chinese influence requires re-evaluation. ASEAN should not adhere to a traditional mindset in assessing regional security politics, as it is dealing with AUKUS—a large corporate entity that will employ any method to gain economic profit from war. ASEAN needs to find innovative and measured approaches to safeguard its sovereignty; as well as to maintain its neutrality principle. ASEAN must learn from the Middle East’s historical experience torn apart and destroyed by American PMCs. And currently a number of PMCs using AUKUS have started to conduct war projects around the Southeast Asian region.
The relatively weak military posture of ASEAN, which is disproportionate in face of the AUKUS threat, should be a significant factor driving ASEAN to strengthen diplomatic ties with China. China is not only a neighbor and a good friend to ASEAN, but China is also a trusted and major economic and trade partner for ASEAN. Since China and ASEAN signed the Free Trade Area Agreement in 2001, economic and trade relations between them have flourished. It is time to elevate the trust in China as ASEAN’s strategic partner in trade to a strategic partnership in the security sector. This is because ‘trust’ is the fundamental basis for building mutually beneficial strategic relationships. China is trustable and capable partner for ASEAN. Trust must precede capability, because trust is the basis in establishing cooperation. In trust there is a belief in good intentions.
China’s rapidly growing military capabilities supported by high technology of defense sector can provide significant benefits to ASEAN in maintaining its sovereignty. China’s crucial role for ASEAN is not only as a counterbalance to AUKUS that is counterhegemonic to the US-dominated unipolar world. More so, China has never conducted its substantial military power for war-related business interests nor for colonializing purpose. This rationale is fundamental for ASEAN to establish strategic defense relations with China. In the future, as U.S.-China relations become more strained, Southeast Asia will become a more complex geopolitical arena. How ASEAN positions herself in the geopolitical area of unequal power-play will directly impact regional stability and development.
Veronika S. Saraswati
Coordinator of International Relation Study Program at Indonesia China Partnership Studies
